Soccer betting model
This is how to make money from soccer betting: Soccer betting model
- Overview of our soccer betting model
- Soccer Betting Model Algorithm
- Developing your own soccer betting model
- Some factors to be considered while developing your own soccer betting model
- Using soccer prediction models developed by other people
- Soccer betting millionaires
- Football betting millionaires
- Soccer betting millionaires tips
People want to know how to make money from soccer betting. If you want to continue reading this, you must be of legal age to bet. Secret of winning betting is hard to unravel but I am going to explain to you how you can become a millionaire through soccer betting. The answer to the question how to make money from soccer betting is to lose small money to win millions. If you follow the model which I am going to explain to you now, you will win millions from soccer betting. The secret of this betting strategy is to have more wins not to have any loss. Losing is part of the sports betting business. You can never win all the time despite how potent your soccer betting strategy is. Machine learning is the core of this soccer betting model.
Overview of our soccer betting model
Everyone knows that betting is risky. You can win millions with small money yet you can still lose the small money you have in bid to win millions. This is what makes people to be scared of betting. The truth about it is that everything in life is risk. If you start a new business, you are taking the risk of losing your money if the business fails. If you get a new job, there is high risk that your boss will sack you the next morning when you come to work. So why do you think that soccer betting is too risky? Personally, I agree that soccer betting is risky because every team comes to win but in reality not every team wins. Some teams win while other loss. Yet sometimes the teams draw. Leagues with high tendency of home team winning complicate issues since their odds in most cases do not worth the risk. Our soccer betting model analyzes the risk involved and determines if the match is worth betting. Our soccer betting model has been optimized fopr premier league and other top flight clubs in Europe. This our strategy can be applied for any sports betting. Our soccer betting model predicts soccer based on complex algorithm that continuously learns from the previous result of prediction. That is machine learning in action. Predicting matches with increased accuracy is assured after every match day in the season.
Soccer Betting Model Algorithm
Betting on high odds game is the best way to make money from soccer betting. Some matches have exceptional high odds. Study the game probabilities and place your bets. Some punters bet on draws only. Draws in most cases have high odds because the chance of having a draw in a match is so low. But statistics have shown that most leagues have about 30% draws in all the games.
Now developing a model that will help you see draw games is the secret of winning high odds games. Machine learning has made it possible for the accuracy of the model to increase with increase in the number of matches played. Artificial intelligence is now applied in all area of life. So is it applied in developing soccer betting model.
You can personally develop a model but you can also use models that other people have developed. Whether you are developing your own model or using the models that other developed, you should be both emotionally and psychologically prepared to accept losing and winning games.
Developing your own soccer betting model
A model is a representation of an idea, an object or even a process or a system that is used to describe and explain phenomena that cannot be experienced directly. Now that you know what a model is, you will start developing one. You can develop a model that will help you select draw games or select teams that are going to win in their away games. Odds for home wins that are likely going to positive are usually small. Thus it is not worth the effort to develop models that will predict home wins correctly.
It is important that you test your model severally before going on live bets. But if you are eager to make quick wins, I advice you backup your bets. If you play a draw, back it up with either side wins. In professional terms back up an ‘X’ with a ‘12’. Also note that as a starter, you should accumulate few games. The more the games, the less precise the model will be. Do not accumulate more than 10 games.
Some factors to be considered while developing your own soccer betting model
- If you want to develop a model for predicting draws, check out the leagues that are predominantly know for having high draws. Capitalize on them because it improves the accuracy of the model. Though the model can be used for any league in the world but to reduce the risk, concentrate on these special leagues.
- Look at the odds for under ‘2.5 Goals’. The lower the odds, the higher the chances of a draw. 1-1 draw is the most frequent followed by 0-0’
- Look out for weaker teams playing at home.
- Check out for mid table teams at the end of the season.
- Look out for close ‘Home’ and ‘Away’ odds
With these five factors, you will develop your own soccer betting model. Use the search boss below to find the steps to follow in developing your betting prediction model.
Using soccer prediction models developed by other people
Most times, it is not necessary to reinvent the wheel. You can use soccer prediction models developed by smart guys and make money. Some of these models are free. Use the search box below and look for them.
Soccer betting millionaires
Soccer betting millionaires are mostly few. The majority of punters are casual punter who mostly lose their games. The soccer betting millionaires are seasoned punters who have a betting plan. The have a long term goal. The are not carried away by immediate wins of losses but are focused on their betting strategy.
The good news is that you too can become a soccer betting millionaire if you carefully read and implement all that we have shown you in this page dedicated to how to make money from soccer betting.
Football betting millionaires
Football betting millionaires are made every week especially during weekends when many leagues play their matches. Soccer betting millionaires carefully select their games. They know the strategy which we have shared some in this page on how to make money from soccer betting.
Millionaire football tips / Soccer betting millionaires tips
1. The concept of value betting must be understood
Soccer betting millionaires understand value betting. A value bet is a bet where the probability of a given outcome is greater than the bookmakers odds reflect. Simply put, when value betting you will be placing bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the bookmakers odds. This means you will have an edge over the bookmaker in the long run. Spotting value is the hardest thing to do in this business, and you will need a lot of practice to pull it off consistently. Only once you have developed your ability to consistently identify value, you will have a systematic edge.
Critical. If you don’t have this, walk away. Sure you might be certain that a 1.25 favourite is going to win, but are the odds being offered giving any value?
Plenty of times we’ve heard casual gamblers say “There’s no way this team is going to lose this game.” Well they might be legitimate favourites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds being offered? Betting with this frame of mind is a little like saying an over-priced wide-screen TV was good value just because you really really really wanted it. It doesn’t work.
Value is a simple concept, but most of the betting public don’t understand this. And perhaps thankfully so, because its this naive or ‘square’ money that can skew the market, leaving great opportunities for the minority of gamblers who do know how to recognise value.
Being able to spot value means that you are able to spot odds that are too high, consistently and systematically – and capitalize on those opportunities.
In principle this is not unlike successful trading with stocks: It makes sense to buy a particular stock when it is undervalued, as this means it likely will appreciate in value later. If you are focused on sports betting, than your job each match day is to find the undervalued teams, and “buy their stock” in a manner of speaking.
Spotting value is in essence about judging probabilities more correctly than the market does. Of course it is difficult to do that for every game and every sport, but that isn’t necessary. Your big advantage over the bookmaker lies in the ability to skip matches with unfavourable odds – just like you don’t have to purchase all stocks available. The bookmaker pretty much has to offer odds for almost all games, at the very least in the most popular leagues.
2. Understand probability and basic maths
For you to be a soccer betting millionaire, you need to like or know basic mathematics. If you’ve ever said the phrase “I’m not a maths guy but….”, then you probably shouldn’t be a betting guy either. While plenty of gamblers can make a success of it by betting on instinct and ‘feel’, to be successful long term you need a viable staking plan and you need to understand what the odds reflect in terms of probability.
Probability in Sports Betting is a measure of how likely something is to happen, and is usually expressed as a decimal between 0 and 1.0 in which 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. Probability can also be expressed as percentage, where 0% indicates impossibility and 100% indicates certainty. In short, it’s a numbers game, and you need an adequate relationship with division and multiplication as a minimum.
3. You need to understand how the bookmakers make the odds
The betting company calculate the probability of each outcome occurring and then subtract the margin. If the real probability is 2/1 (3.0 in decimal, 200 in American) then the bookie will subtract their 5% margin and the real odds given will be 19/10 (2.90, 190).
The first step for any bookmaker in setting their odds for a given event is trying to determine the true probability or odds of any given outcome occurring. What we mean by outcome, in this case, is any possible result that they may have to pay out on (e.g. a home win, a draw or an away win in the case of a football match).
Factors to consider:
In order to determine these true odds, bookmakers will look at factors such as prior form, statistics, historical precedents, expert opinion and any number of other such factors that could impact the event in question. Following this research and analysis, the bookmaker will be left with what they deem to be the most accurate possible true odds of any outcome occurring.
A ‘Fair Book’:
How To Set OddsTo continue the football match analogy we alluded to earlier, those true odds might be that a home win is evens, a draw is 2/1 and an away win is 5/1. What those odds represent are a 50% chance of a home win, a 33.33% chance of a draw and a 16.67% chance of an away win.
If the bookmaker were to offer those odds, therefore, they would have produced what’s known as a ‘fair book’. That is a betting market where the percentage chances of all of the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
If in total punters bet in the same proportion as the relative probabilities of each outcome occurring (i.e. 50% on a home win, 33.33% on a draw and 16.67% on an away win) in this example, however, the bookmaker will pay out exactly what they take in regardless of the final result.
Bookmakers, therefore, must adjust the odds they actually offer to punters in order to try to ensure they make a profit.
How Do Bookmakers Actually Set Their Odds?
Once a bookmaker has determined what they believe to be the true odds of any outcome occurring in a given event, they will then adjust those odds downwards before offering them to punters.
In practice, the methods by which bookmakers do this can be diverse and quite complicated but for the sake of our explanation we will focus upon the simplest possible method; proportional decreasing.
In our above example the relative probability of each of the outcomes occurring (50%, 33.33% and 16.67%) has a proportional relationship of 3:2:1. That means that another set of three odds figures with the same relationship but which are all shorter could be what a bookmaker chooses to offer to punters.
An example of such a set of odds is 4/6, 6/4 and 4/1, which equates to relative probabilities of 60%, 40% and 20%. Whilst the proportional relationship between these odds is the same, however, the sum of their percentage figures is 120% rather than 100%. That means that if punters bet according to the same pattern as the true odds the bookmaker has determined (3:2:1), the bookmaker will always receive 20% more than they pay out.
That 20% figure is what is known as the bookmaker’s ‘margin’, ‘overround’ or ‘vigorish/vig’.
It is important to know that some bookmakers ban their successful customers but some do not. Some examples of bookmakers that do not ban their successful customers are Pinnacle Sports , SBObet and IBCbet.
4. Soccer betting millionaires are not scared of the less favourite team
The longer we have been betting, the more we have come to fall in love with the team that nobody likes. This is the mentality of soccer betting millionaires. In fact, we feel better about a potential bet the uglier it looks on paper. Sounds counter intuitive we know, but the less the general public likes a team, the more we like the look of them in terms of value. Especially a team that might have performed well over a long period but may have had a bad run of maybe 4 or 5 games. Just watch the general public jump off them, and watch their value rise.
5. Soccer betting millionaires Don’t dwell on the past or celebrate for too long
Don’t let a recent losing run throw you off your game. Put it out of your mind and stay with your analysis and have faith that the wheel will turn. Similarly, don’t let a recent winning streak give you false courage and lead you to over extend yourself. Again, stay with your analysis and stick with your plan.
6. Don’t hope for The Big Score
This is the attitude of soccer betting millionaires. Multi-bets. Parlays. Teasers. Whatever you like to call them, know when to bet them. And when not to. Sure they offer the promise of the big score, the big pay day, but unless you have done your analysis and have located true value, they are a terrible way to bet.
Look at it this way. If you place a multi-bet of 4 legs, and you were getting full price even money odds of 2.00 for each leg, the odds for that multi would be 16.00. Now lets look at a real world example where you’re being offered lets say 1.90 for ‘even money’ with the bookmaker taking out 5%: the odds for that same 4 leg multi would be just 13.00. That’s taking out close to 19% of the full price of that bet.
But if you have located true value, then multi’s can be tremendous value as you multiply the value into each leg. The issue is of course, locating true value. Everyone who adds a leg to a multi does so because they believe they are finding value. Nobody bets odds that don’t represent value to them. But key to creating value multi’s is in finding true value or else you’re only diminishing your chances of success with each under valued leg you add.
7. Have a long term plan
If you take your betting seriously, you need to think long term. Build your betting bankroll, steadily increase the amount you bet on each game, and soon enough you’ll find you’re making some decent pocket money on the side, and maybe, just maybe, if you stick with it long enough, you can make a living wage out of it.
Never forget: Betting, like any other form of serious investment, is a marathon, not a sprint. Accordingly it will take a while for your bankroll to grow. If you’re patient and successful however, the compound interest effect will be on your side. What will look like painfully slow growth initially will end up picking up a remarkable exponential dynamic.
You will have to deal with more swings, losing streaks, winning streaks, making the curve less smooth and requiring a greater number of bets. Nevertheless the general dynamic holds true – how far you can get with 5% value is quite amazing, and doesn’t even take all that long.
8. Start with a sensible betting bankroll
If you want to make money, you need to start with a betting bankroll capable of absorbing losses. If you’re going to bet in units, with an average bet of 1 unit, we would recommend a bankroll of at least 50 units. Minimum.
OK so maybe you can only afford a bankroll of 1000 euro, which means your average unit will be 20. Sounds small time we know and you want to be a high roller. Well a euro1000 bankroll can quickly turn into a substantial amount with consistent value recognition and an intelligent staking plan.
Lets say you bet 200 bets a year. And for argument sake lets say they are all of 1.90 odds, and lets say you hit at a 54% strike rate. Well with a fractional Kelly staking plan, at the end of those 200 bets, depending on your winning consistency which should even out over a long term, your bankroll will be in the ballpark of euro1100.00. Yeah I hear what you’re saying – that’s only 100.00 profit over the year. Well, that’s just betting 200 bets a year, with a 2.6% average return per bet.
Now imagine you bet 400 bets in a year and able to get still a modest 5% average return. That bankroll of euro1000 at the end of the 400 bets would be in the ballpark of euro1400 and at the end of 5 years that bankroll will be in the range of euro5000, and after 10 years, around euro30,000 with an average unit of 600.
Not bad is it. Of course the hard part is to get that consistent 5% return, and perhaps the harder part is grinding it out until you build that bank up over a number of years. But the point here is to show how starting out modest with a viable bankroll and staking plan, can turn into genuine profits in the long term
It isn’t just all about value though – the ability to correctly manage your money is almost as important. Money management is about two fundamental goals, that partially contradict themselves:
- growing your bankroll as quickly as possible
- while avoiding bankruptcy in the process
Provided you find value regularly, your bankroll will of course grow faster if you stake more per bet. But if you stake too much per bet, you risk bankruptcy. Sadly this aspect is often severely underestimated by most people. The random swings can be brutal even if you mostly place value bets. Luckily this can be handled easily by a very simple rule: Personally I would recommend you never stake more than 1-2% of your bankroll on any given bet..
.9. Let go of the need to ‘make it interesting’
If you want to make it big in betting, value alone will not cut it. You need to find that value in sports and leagues that you can bet at reasonably high betting limits (these are limits that apply to every punter, rather than just a select few winning ones).
But soccer is not the only avenue. For example for American Sports, Pinnacle Sports and Matchbook allow for high stakes as well, British Horse Racing is another good possibility on Betfair and Betdaq. However, it should be noted that early market odds will often have low limits and restricted betting until the market develops in the days leading up to the event.
For example, a bookmaker such as SBObet may offer stakes up to 5,000 for a Premier League game a day before kickoff, but will likely only offer a tenth of that on markets posted a week prior. It’s also worth noting that many traditional bookmakers such as Ladbrokes do not quote their bet limits as unlike Pinnacle Sports and SBObet, they will not apply to the majority of their customers.
Soccer betting millionaires are real !
There’s no way around it: To find success in betting you need to put in the hard work. You will have to say goodbye to the idea of suddenly winning the lottery with a huge accumulator. Importantly, remember there are no so-called ‘safe bets’ and nothing is guaranteed in betting.